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Walter Yannis
03-13-07, 05:34
Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117329581356629863.html?mod=mostpop)
Nest Egg
Why Your Home Isn't the Investment You Think It Is
Too many people rely on their home as their primary savings strategy. That's a mistake.
By DAVID CROOK
March 12, 2007; Page R1
Planning your retirement? Don't bet the house on it.

Your home means a lot of things to you, most of them good. Your home gives comfort and protection to you and your family, and it could well embody all your material hopes and dreams.

But houses have become much more than just places to live. Your home is probably your biggest asset, and the price you could ask for it today is almost certainly much higher than what you paid for it back whenever.

As a result, houses have become substitute credit cards, as profligate owners borrow their equity to finance everything from cars to vacations. Among thriftier owners, the equity they have built up in the family home has become a vital part of retirement planning -- a "fourth leg" of the now-unstable "company pension/personal savings/Social Security" stool that was long the model for a financially secure old age.

BETTER HOME-BUYING DECISIONS

LISTEN TO A PODCAST:1 WSJ's David Crook discusses how consumers can make better home-buying decisions. He also discusses whether it makes sense to invest so much money on renovations and tells how to save money on mortgage interest.
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JOURNAL REPORT VIDEO

Unfortunately for both groups, however, houses are not very good investments. For the grasshoppers, there's nothing quite as stupid as paying off your 2002 trip to Orlando in 2032, when you finally settle up your refinanced "cash out" 30-year mortgage. And for the ants, economic studies have demonstrated over and over that houses (1) cost more than most people make when they sell and (2) rarely match the long-term returns of stocks or other investments.

And that's doubly true today, with much of the U.S. well into a real-estate recession. It's unlikely that homeowners in once-booming areas will see a return of skyrocketing prices anytime soon.

"Real-estate investments suffer serious and sometimes prolonged downturns," writes economist W. Van Harlow in a new study of home equity and retirement from the Fidelity Research Institute in Boston. "A real-estate 'bust' could be quite damaging to an investor nearing retirement who relied too heavily on home equity."

It may be late for a lot of homeowners to read this, but here it goes anyway: It's risky and bad planning to have too much of your net worth in your principal residence. No prudent stock-market player would put 60% or 70% of a portfolio in just one stock, but millions will hold that much or more of their total net worth in just one house.

Food for thought:

• If you bought a house in Los Angeles in 1990, just as the real-estate market turned downward, you would have had to wait a decade for your home's value to return to what you paid.

• If you bought in Rochester, N.Y., in 1980, you would have seen only a mediocre 4% annual growth for the next 25 years.

• If you bought in Dallas in 1986, as the oil boom went bust, your home wouldn't have appreciated at all before 1998.

So with all that in mind, here's a question-and-answer rundown of some financial issues of home owning.

HOME SWEETER HOME

Here are five things you can do to better manage your number one asset

• THINK DIFFERENTLY
It's a house, not a retirement fund. Stop thinking of your house as an investment, and recognize it for what it really is: an expensive installment-plan purchase that promises you a hefty rebate down the line. The best way to make a true profit on a home is to pay as little for it as you can. That means buy cheaper, buy quicker, buy smarter.

• PAY EARLY, PAY OFTEN

Speed up your mortgage payments. A typical home today will end up costing its buyer $1 million over the next 30 years. The first way to significantly cut that cost is to reduce interest costs. Add $100 a month to a 6.25%, $300,000 loan payment, and you will shave almost four years of loan payments and save $57,000 of interest. Add an extra $500, and you will pay off the house in just 17 years and save $170,000. Caution: Don't defer retirement savings in favor of rapid mortgage payments. Do both.

• SHARE THE BURDEN

Buy a two-family house or a house with a rental unit as your first home. Pay it off quickly, bulking up your monthly payments with your tenants' rent and paying off your mortgage early. Then use that house to buy your dream home. You will get out of debt more quickly, have more money to pay for your new home, save more in your retirement fund and use less of your regular income for future housing costs.

• WATCH THE RENOVATING

Build a new kitchen -- or bath or bedroom -- because you want it or need it, not because it will make you a profit or enhance the value of your home. According to Remodeling magazine's annual report on the costs and value of home renovations, a top-of-the-line kitchen remodel like you see on TV or in shelter magazines will cost you $108,000 and return just $82,000 -- a loss of $26,000. Borrow the money, and your loss will be worse.

• DON'T MOVE SO OFTEN

It's the best way to build equity and enjoy the benefits of rising values. According to a study by Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, 15% of homeowners move every year -- or the equivalent of every U.S. homeowner buying and selling a home every seven years. Few homeowners have paid off more than 10% of their loan principal by that point. But they will have paid four times as much in interest. When they buy their new house, they start the mortgage clock all over again.


Q: My home is my largest asset. Why shouldn't I rely on it to provide my nest egg?

A: Because a house can be an inefficient means of investing, and it costs far more to buy and operate than you think. Homeowners can easily end up paying more to live in their houses than the supposed "profit" they make when they sell them.

When most homeowners figure their returns, they don't do much more than subtract the price they paid from the price they received. Then they come up with a really big return because they paid only a 10% or 20% down payment. So they figure they made a huge "profit."

But they didn't. That's because the costs of owning a home -- buying it with a long-term mortgage and then paying taxes on it, insuring it, repairing it, renovating it -- sap most of what most homeowners think they make in price appreciation.

Houses are nice financially because there are not many other things you buy that actually go up in value, and not many things can put a six-figure check in your pocket when you sell them. But don't delude yourself: You've already spent most of that check, and you are likely to spend the rest in just a few days when you buy a new home.

Think of your sale proceeds another way: not as a true profit, but as a huge rebate. Some of the thousands of dollars that you paid into the house over the years are being returned to you -- sometimes with a bonus, often without.

Q: But it's certainly better to buy a house than to pay rent.

A: That depends on when you buy, and how long you own. Buy at the wrong time -- like during the kind of buying frenzy that much of the country has just experienced -- and you could well end up wishing you had rented instead.

Boom market or bust, home buying has so many extra costs -- from upfront "points" paid to a lender to title insurance and appraisal fees -- that over the first five to seven years, a renter who invests the equivalent of a down payment in stocks could easily do better overall than a house buyer. Compounding that problem: Most homeowners move within seven years.


As the ownership timeline stretches out to 15, 20 or 30 years, however, the buyer will almost certainly do better than the renter, especially given the tax benefits of paying mortgage interest over traditional rent and the big rebate when the owner finally sells.

But the typical buy vs. rent argument clouds the more important point: A house is an inefficient way of building wealth.

Q: But I have to live somewhere! And I have to pay something for a place to live. Certainly it's better to pay "deductible" mortgage interest than rent.

A: Buying a house with a long-term mortgage is just another form of renting.

Mortgage interest is rent that you pay to your lender for the use of its money rather than to a landlord for the use of his house. Yes, the government picks up a portion of that with the tax deduction, but most of your monthly payment neither builds equity nor is deductible. It just goes down the same black hole that sucks up any other renter's money. And it takes 20 years before a typical borrower pays more principal each month than interest.

"I have to pay something" is a rationale that home buyers use for going deeply in debt and paying tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest to buy a house that, they mistakenly believe, will make a big profit for them down the line.

Q: So how much does a house really cost?

A: You can easily end up spending three times the purchase price of a house. Today's buyer of a typical $300,000 single-family home who takes out a 30-year loan will end up paying the price of the house again just in interest. Add 30 years of property taxes, homeowner's insurance, regular maintenance and a couple of big-ticket repairs or improvements, and the total cost of buying the home could easily top out at well over $1 million.

Q: Yes, but the house will be worth much, much more.

A: Maybe, maybe not. Whether you come out ahead depends on where and when you buy. Even cash buyers might be surprised to see that they can't be assured of making a profit.

"The Costs of Home Ownership" table is a simplified rundown on a typical single-family home -- a house that was bought for $50,000 in 1977 -- based on national appreciation rates as reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Included are modest estimates of other home-owning costs (not adjusted for inflation). To keep things simple, there are no transaction costs, no additional borrowing to finance improvements and no refinancing costs, all of which would drive the expenses even higher. It's not a pretty picture.


Q: Those numbers don't seem realistic for where I live. You can't buy a house here for that kind of money.

A: To be sure, not everyone did so badly as the national average. OFHEO's Home Price Index calculator puts the average 30-year appreciation for a house in the ever-pricey San Francisco metropolitan area at 1,125%, compared with the national average of just 481% (http://www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp12). So if you bought that $50,000 house in San Francisco in 1977, it would be worth about $613,000 today and, assuming much the same costs of ownership, you'd make a true profit of $219,000.

You would have done well in other coastal metro regions, too. The comparable house would be worth about $593,000 in Los Angeles (up 1,085%), $549,000 in New York (998%) and $432,000 in Washington (763%).

But some other big cities didn't fare as well. You'd be in the red in Chicago, where home values rose 463% and the house would be worth $282,000. Your house would be valued at only about $176,000 (252%) in Dallas and just $147,000 in Houston (193%).


Q: But even if I had bought in Texas, I'd still essentially break even. Buying let me live "rent free" for 30 years.

A: Living "rent free" is moving in with your parents or your wealthy lover in Tuscany. You didn't live rent free. You had some of your rent money subsidized and then some more rebated.

Yes, you are sitting on a lot of home value, but you've spent a lot -- probably more than the house is worth -- getting what you have. And you almost certainly lost some investing opportunities along the way while you were spending your money buying the house.

And that's assuming everything breaks your way. If you don't sell at the top of the market, you could see stagnant or falling values for a while. There have been real-estate bubbles before. In San Francisco, where it looks like prices may have hit their high mark in the third quarter of 2006, home values peaked in early 1990 before falling for the next eight years. Houston saw a modest surge in the '80s, followed by an equally modest decline and then two decades of grindingly slow appreciation.

Q: That's still money that I wouldn't see otherwise. Even getting just some of my money back is better than getting none.

A: But there's another kicker. You haven't gotten any money back yet. All you have is a house that's 30 years older than when you moved in. In order to realize your windfall, you'll have to borrow against it or sell it.

If you borrow against a house you've paid off, then you will start mortgage payments all over again.

If you sell it, what are you going to do with that big check in your pocket after you've walked around for a couple of hours feeling richer than you've ever been? You'll probably spend most of it in just a day or so buying another house.

Q: So I'll downsize, find a smaller, cheaper house, buy it and then invest the rest of the money.

A: Prices tend to rise or fall across an entire market. So if you want to stay in the same metropolitan region and save a big chunk of your rebated nest egg, you should be prepared to go significantly downscale -- move to a much less desirable neighborhood.

NOT AS RICH AS YOU THINK

See a table that shows14 the costs of buying and owning a hypothetical home in suburban Washington. (Adobe Acrobat15 is required.)
Consider a hypothetical Washington-area couple who bought their home for $55,000 in 1977.

With improvements and market appreciation they appear to have done quite well. If they sell their house today, they could expect to get something in the neighborhood of $860,000. And they would walk out of the closing meeting with a rebate check of about $550,000, of which about $175,000 would be profit.

But they're facing a tough market where the median price of a condo is two-thirds the cost of a single-family home. They don't have enough money to make the most obvious move down -- from their house to a comparable apartment that would cost around $575,000.

Q: Then I'll move to someplace cheaper, like Houston.

A: You still face borrowing or spending all or most of your cash on your new house -- and you will still have maintenance, property taxes, insurance and other "I have to pay something" costs.

If our Washington couple chooses to leave and move to a cheaper housing market, they will still have costs greater than they think. Popular retirement communities are usually cheaper than big metropolitan areas, but they are not so cheap that sale proceeds will plant them on a country-club fairway and pay for the lifestyle that goes with it.

Selling your home yourself can help you avoid a Realtor's fee. The right price can attract buyers, but the wrong price can turn them away. Dow Jones Online's Stacey Delo shows how to make sure the price is right.
According to Coldwell Banker's often-cited home-comparison calculator, a house comparable to the place in Washington would cost $439,000 in Fort Myers, Fla., or $407,000 in Orlando. The couple would do a little better moving to Tucson, Ariz., where the comparable house costs $281,000 -- leaving the sellers with less than half of their rebate windfall.

So yes, cashing out in Washington -- or San Francisco or New York -- will give you enough money to buy a nice place on a golf course somewhere in the Sun Belt. And you might have $200,000 or $300,000 left over.

Q: So what can I do if I've planned too much of my retirement around my investment in my home?

A: If you already own your home, you can still rein in your expenses, and diversify your investments. Unfortunately, there's not a lot you can do about reducing many of the costs of home owning, such as property taxes or replacing a roof.

But you do have control over two of the biggest home-owning costs: interest and renovations. Both are big money losers. Even with the tax deduction, most of your mortgage interest is still just wasted rent money. So accelerating your principal payment will result in huge savings down the line. Add $300 a month to the payment on a 6.25%, $300,000 loan, and you'll save 10 years of payments and $83,000 of after-tax money -- enough to put a kid through a public university.

Few, if any, renovations make a profit. A new kitchen or family room might raise the resale value of a house, but rarely as much as they cost to build. And if the homeowner borrows the money, the renovation work could end up costing two or three times what the contractor charged.

If you don't already own your own home, do the math. Don't buy if you think you'll be moving in just a few years. Don't buy a house that's too big for your needs or so expensive that you will strain to pay for it simply because "it's a good investment." It's not.

YertleTurtle
03-13-07, 06:07
My father was a general contractor. I've built many a house.

Houses are durable consumer goods, not investments.

Walter Yannis
03-13-07, 06:19
My father was a general contractor. I've built many a house.

Houses are durable consumer goods, not investments.

That's right.

You really have to count up the costs and ask yourself whether it makes more sense to rent and to bank the difference.

Right now it generally makes little sense to buy. The "reality check" is how much you'd pay to buy (loan costs, taxes, upkeep, renovations) compared to the rental value. I say that in this market if they're close, then consider buying. If not, it's better to rent and invest the difference someplace else.

They won't be close for a while, but I'll bet by the end of this year the gap will narrow considerably.

Grapple
03-13-07, 06:27
Homes are a financial investment as well as a place to live, however nothing guarantees that the financial investment won’t lose you money

• DON'T MOVE SO OFTEN
The problem with this is that the whole system is designed to get you to move since so many people make money off of you moving, the RE agent, appraiser, the Bank/mortgage holder, the big financial houses, the government, etc all make huge amounts of money every time you move. So for one thing they design the laws so that your safe little neighborhood can become a ghetto in a few years, and only by trading up from neighborhood to neighborhood until you get a house in one of the elite neighborhoods can you be relatively safe from this. The elite make sure that the low income and section 8 housing never gets built in their neighborhood.

Stable safe neighborhoods are money losers for the whole RE industry since people staying in the same house for their entire lifetime looses them lots of money and even worse they could pass these homes onto their children which will lose them even more customers.

Happy Hacker
03-13-07, 13:09
The gain on the sale is only a tiny consideration.

Bordeaux
03-13-07, 14:10
Methinks the Jewish bankers benefit more if you go big into debt for that so-called dream house. So, I'll keep renting instead.

35 years ago and before a man could buy a house at a reasonable price and support his family on a single income.

Simply put, housing prices today are simply unreasonable and many people are sucked into the vortex because the media sells the lie. The Jews fix what the "market value" is and the masses are propagandized into buying into the "American Dream", only to find themselves swamped with all kinds of debt and becoming essentially wage/mortgage slaves.

It's the same way with college educations. The Jewsmedia declares that everyone needs to go to college (or else you're a loser) and the only way to do that is through taking out loans and going into massive debt. And that's before you even start working!

This system is rotted through and a crash of the market is overdue.

So, I'll keep renting instead.

Happy Hacker
03-13-07, 19:24
Methinks the Jewish bankers benefit more if you go big into debt for that so-called dream house. So, I'll keep renting instead.

35 years ago and before a man could buy a house at a reasonable price and support his family on a single income.

You are correct, 35 years ago, a home was relatively affordable. But, real income is lower and the price of land is much higher.

But, you're wrong about renting. Mortgages cost less than rent. For what you're paying for rent now, you could own a better home. In 10 years, your rent will double while your mortgage will be the same. In 20 or 30 years, your rent will more than triple and your home will be paid off, no more mortgage payments! Think about that.

As time goes by, you'll build up equity in your home. It'll have real value if you need to borrow against it or if you sell. But, rent is money flushed down the toilet. You'll have nothing to show for it years down the line. Nothing.

I couldn't think of myself as free (relatively speaking) if I had to answer to a landlord.

Go and buy yourself a house. The biggest mistake, next to not buying, is spending too much.

pjoseph
03-14-07, 01:45
But, you're wrong about renting. Mortgages cost less than rent. For what you're paying for rent now, you could own a better home. In 10 years, your rent will double while your mortgage will be the same. In 20 or 30 years, your rent will more than triple and your home will be paid off, no more mortgage payments! Think about that.

As time goes by, you'll build up equity in your home. It'll have real value if you need to borrow against it or if you sell. But, rent is money flushed down the toilet. You'll have nothing to show for it years down the line. Nothing.

Property tax, one of the gifts of marxism granted to us by our masters, can equal a reasonable rent. The property tax for my parents house in crooked county, IL was greater than my rent in CA. Owning a condo outright can cause you property tax, insurance and assoakiation fees which could easily equal a rent. Many houses in planned communities require an association fee to pay for their sign and for illegal savages to cut the common grass. With the rise in local property taxes, you can easily be driven from your home.

Factotum
03-14-07, 05:58
And for the ants, economic studies have demonstrated over and over that houses (1) cost more than most people make when they sell and (2) rarely match the long-term returns of stocks or other investments.

A little misleading. You can't buy stocks for 5% down. There must be a reason for that...

Happy Hacker
03-14-07, 09:48
Property tax, one of the gifts of marxism granted to us by our masters, can equal a reasonable rent.

Your landlord will pass on to the renter the cost of property tax along with his cost of the mortgage. So, renting does nothing to get you out of paying property tax.

When you buy land and a home, you need to consider the property tax as well as what direction the community is headed. A cheap home won't have much property tax.

Incidentally, retired people with low incomes may not have to pay property tax in many states.

Happy Hacker
03-14-07, 09:51
A little misleading. You can't buy stocks for 5% down. There must be a reason for that...

It's called margin trading. Although, with recent regulations, I don't think you can buy stock for as little as 5% down.

Factotum
03-15-07, 06:10
It's called margin trading. Although, with recent regulations, I don't think you can buy stock for as little as 5% down.

It's 50% for stock. And they don't market margin loans the way they do mortages and home equity loans. Some powerful incentives for people to speculate in housing, many all the while seeing it as completely risk-free.

Macrobius
03-15-07, 10:25
Let me rephrase the article a bit, with a different spin:

Because of the housing bubble, people can no longer afford, without a healthy dose of foolishness, to live in the houses they own. Therefore, serfdom and dependency on a landlord is becoming a more popular 'lifestyle choice'.

What caused this state of affairs? The foolish notion that you should borrow money from a 'bank' (usurer) in order to purchase a homestead you couldn't afford. Furthermore, the conversion of those usurers from social parasites to society's masters. The revolution, under President Wilson, which occurred in the lives of our grandparents and great-grandparents, resulted in a private bank consortium -- the Money Trust as it was known back then -- in being handed all usury business in America, which it managed for a a bit over a century.

It has now built up a bubble that will, if we allow it, let the whole plum fall into its basket. The people are willing to work for medical care and subsistence. They have hocked all the land and property they own several times over, and are deeper in debt than an entire generation, maybe two, can afford to pay off.

I missed that spin in the above article. It looks like a fluff piece designed (by the Wall Street backers, who are neck-deep in this) to lull us to sleep and distract us from the real problem and the real danger.

The lesson should not be 'rent, don't buy, when the market is right' -- it should be don't borrow at usury and put faith in 'fractional reserve' banking. You will lose. Your children will lose. Your society will lose. Your race will lose.

Let's learn the right lesson here.

Walter Yannis
03-15-07, 19:24
Let me rephrase the article a bit, with a different spin:

Because of the housing bubble, people can no longer afford, without a healthy dose of foolishness, to live in the houses they own. Therefore, serfdom and dependency on a landlord is becoming a more popular 'lifestyle choice'.

What caused this state of affairs? The foolish notion that you should borrow money from a 'bank' (usurer) in order to purchase a homestead you couldn't afford. Furthermore, the conversion of those usurers from social parasites to society's masters. The revolution, under President Wilson, which occurred in the lives of our grandparents and great-grandparents, resulted in a private bank consortium -- the Money Trust as it was known back then -- in being handed all usury business in America, which it managed for a a bit over a century.

It has now built up a bubble that will, if we allow it, let the whole plum fall into its basket. The people are willing to work for medical care and subsistence. They have hocked all the land and property they own several times over, and are deeper in debt than an entire generation, maybe two, can afford to pay off.

I missed that spin in the above article. It looks like a fluff piece designed (by the Wall Street backers, who are neck-deep in this) to lull us to sleep and distract us from the real problem and the real danger.

The lesson should not be 'rent, don't buy, when the market is right' -- it should be don't borrow at usury and put faith in 'fractional reserve' banking. You will lose. Your children will lose. Your society will lose. Your race will lose.

Let's learn the right lesson here.

Great post.

I agree, but as far as I know there is no alternative, non-usurious financing available, at least on a large scale.

We need to develop a Christian alternative, something akin to Islamic Banking, but that doesn't seem on the horizon here. In Spain they have the Mondragon cooperative movement, but that never caught on here.

Rent-to-own land sale contracts maybe are the way to go?

Macrobius
03-15-07, 19:36
Great post.

I agree, but as far as I know there is no alternative, non-usurious financing available, at least on a large scale.

We need to develop a Christian alternative, something akin to Islamic Banking, but that doesn't seem on the horizon here. In Spain they have the Mondragon cooperative movement, but that never caught on here.

Rent-to-own land sale contracts maybe are the way to go?

I should be clear that I would be open to a Distributist type solution here. The crucial element in the present pathology is the lack of social regulation around interest, and the deadly combination of interest with fiat money and fractional reserve banking. These institutions are not suitable for persons of Anglo-Saxon genetics and maybe everyone. Previous regulation centered on permitting usury while despising the class of persons who engaged in it -- complete utopian prohibition would have been, maybe, unrealistic. Small scale loans -- among persons who know and trust each other, perhaps with compensation but not with usurious or even minimally predatory 'business practice', to name our corrupt morals -- these are aspects of communal life we need to relearn. We will be less materially wealthy if we turn our backs on rapaciousness, but we will be richer as a social *whole*.

The 'mortgage', as you may know, was originally a 'death pledge' -- a contract sale that involved payment from the estate *only in the event of death*. The assumption being that for a knight, his word of honour would suffice for repayment terms, whatever they may have been, during his lifetime. Thus, only his death was a risk that needed a premium. Obviously, there were crooked knights who ran through money and defrauded creditors, perhaps using political favouritism (or anti-semitism) to avoid repayment. But that was the norm around which social expectations were set -- you get the society you intend, to some degree.

Walter Yannis
03-15-07, 19:46
The crucial element in the present pathology is the lack of social regulation around interest, and the deadly combination of interest with fiat money and fractional reserve banking. SNIP

Well put.

Happy Hacker
03-15-07, 20:30
Because of the housing bubble, people can no longer afford, without a healthy dose of foolishness, to live in the houses they own. Therefore, serfdom and dependency on a landlord is becoming a more popular 'lifestyle choice'.

What caused this state of affairs? The foolish notion that you should borrow money from a 'bank' (usurer) in order to purchase a homestead you couldn't afford.

The only thing more foolish than paying usury to a Jewish banker is long-term renting.

Macrobius
03-15-07, 21:40
The only thing more foolish than paying usury to a Jewish banker is long-term renting.

Like any risk, it pays off if you win the bet. The problem is that the system is rigged and the house always wins, net, in the end. Buying on credit is betting against the house, no matter how you slice it. It's a good idea for the wrong percentage of us (not even fair odds), and our society as a whole loses by the practice for mortgages. The costs just don't show up in an individual's household budget, for which your observation (about me getting mine) is quite correct. They show up as social costs, distributed here and there in little bits of (increasing) misery, which you can see all around you. Look at the concept economists use of 'welfare-reducing' in the PDF file I linked on the Greenspan thread for an example of banker-think. Cutting out the middle man reduces welfare [of the middle man].

Factotum
03-16-07, 05:52
The foolish notion that you should borrow money from a 'bank' (usurer) in order to purchase a homestead you couldn't afford.

What most people don't get is that what makes the quoted purchase price unaffordable is precisely the easy availability of usury. This is most obvious in the recent interest rate-driven boom but is a pretty consistent element. Buyers are even encouraged not to look at the price, just the monthly payment. Remember, the true marginal cost of land is zero, and so its price reflects only what people are willing and able to pay for it. Without usury, I would expect land values to fall across the board, making the purchase price of homes far more affordable.

Blond Knight
03-18-07, 18:01
Charley Reese on the real estate bubble.

***********************************************

http://www.lewrockwell.com/reese/reese348.html


Told You So

by Charley Reese


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I've never been shy about saying "I told you so." Now we're seeing the foreclosures I predicted back during the real-estate boom. A lot of people are going to end up holding paper that isn't worth the price of the ink on it.

I make no claim to special vision and certainly no claim to being an economist. But I do like history. And I remember what I read. Florida had a big real-estate boom in the 1920s. It became so frantic that people were buying and selling options on property. Then it all collapsed.

An acre of ground that the week before sold for $6,000 couldn't be sold for $2. Some of the banks that had made foolish loans ended up with thousands of acres of palmetto scrub, and there was nothing they could do with it except pay the property taxes and hope for improvement sometime in the future. Florida was full of people who were "land poor," and for some it lasted well into the 1950s. Even some towns went belly up, because you can't collect taxes from people who don't have any money.

Ghostly monuments to the bust were all over Florida. You might see an ornate Italian arch over a dirt road where some developer had hoped to see thousands of people living. Now the dirt road just goes into the woods.

There was a dilapidated sign that said "Rocket City" outside of Orlando as late as the '70s. The nearby paved streets were cracked with weeds and grass. Not a house was visible. It was so isolated, the cops said drug dealers would land small planes on the streets in the middle of the night.

In West Florida, right on the beach was a three-story concrete shell that had intended to be a hotel.

Of course, things did improve decades later. The stock salesmen are correct when they say to invest for the long haul. The trick is to remember that human life doesn't last for the long haul. Many a poor man died during the Great Depression.

Greed drives the booms and inflates the bubbles. Insiders usually cash out before the bubble bursts, but those suckers someone said were born every minute are lulled into believing that what goes up keeps going up and never comes down. I long ago gave up the belief that you can save people from themselves.

One factor people often overlook is inflation, which is depreciation of the dollar's buying power. The town house I live in was probably built for no more than $14,000 in labor and material and initially sold for maybe $25,000. Now, years later, it's appraised at about $110,000. Well, guess what? It didn't turn to gold during those passing years. In fact, it got older and, as all things do, began to wear out. In other words, $110,000 inflated dollars will buy you a secondhand $25,000 house. And, of course, if the neighborhood goes to hell, even the inflated price will fall.

I learned something else from observation: The economy is like a yardstick that floats upright in the water. The high-income folks are at the top. The low-income folks are at the bottom, just above the waterline. When the economy dips, the low-income people go under, while the high-income people stay dry. So the market for high-end products will keep on chugging even as the low-income folks drown.

The old rules of sound personal finance always apply, especially during a bubble. Don't live beyond your means. Don't buy more than you can pay for. Don't expect to get rich quick. And don't confuse salesmen for friends or advisers.

March 17, 2007

Walter Yannis
03-18-07, 18:18
The old rules of sound personal finance always apply, especially during a bubble. Don't live beyond your means. Don't buy more than you can pay for. Don't expect to get rich quick. And don't confuse salesmen for friends or advisers.

Bears repeating.

Last Chance Armada
03-21-07, 00:58
everyone needs to go to college (or else you're a loser) and the only way to do that is through taking out loans and going into massive debt. And that's before you even start working!


It's all a part of the great American middle class dream. It will undoubtedly die long before the myth of it dies, though. It goes something like this:

"Attend the best possible school. This will put you approximately $100,000 in debt, or maybe only $40,000 if you attend a state university. Unless you major in chemical engineering or similar you can now expect to make $35/40k a year [if even that] upon graduation. Now, when you're in your late 20's, you'll actually have your student loans paid off, but now you've got a mortgage payment, and oh, now you say you want a family, too?"

If you go the JD/MD route, you take on even larger loans -- I know a pathologist here who was approximately $250k in debt by the time she finished her BS/MS/MD route -- but you also assume you'll make more money in the long run. Overall, the equation still works out in the positive for both the humble four-year graduate and the professional, but will this be the case in 20 years? I'm not betting on it. What does the average family practice physician make, post residency? $130k/year?

Then there's that great, gaping hole where middle-class dreams go to die -- GRADUATE SCHOOL! OK, I don't consider my MS to be wholly a waste (it certainly crystallized some sort of work ethic, if nothing else), but, I feel for all of the 10-year literature PhD track types out there, who will be lucky to get a job teaching Nietzsche at some provincial community college upon graduation.

In short, the average graduate MIGHT start "getting ahead" sometime in his early 30's, but even that is a best case scenario. Obviously, the student with a fully parentally funded college experience has a jump start on life, but even that is not certain. What does a Sociology major have on a plumber or electrician, for example? The tradesman has cultivated a decent career in the same timespan as most state university students have spent doing bong hits: he has not lost 4-6 years of "opportunity cost" like his college-"educated" counterpart has.

In the future, my guess is that a college education will be less middle-class necessity and more upper-class privilege, as it was 100 years ago. A 4-year degree is still the one thing that really separates one from the masses (I believe about 25% of American adults have four-year degrees.) Any education beyond that is a risky proposition, economically. My guess is that a four year degree will also increasingly show itself to be an economically risky proposition over the upcoming decades. As much as I'd like to swallow the kool-aid about "exploring intellectual options in college", my own experience is that college is largely a waste for a majority of students, who would be better served with some sort of occupational training. Really, what does a liberal arts degree connote? It says, "I can regurgitate 'critical theory' horseswill on cue." Half of these victims of "higher education" don't even pick up a book after they graduate!

Gary North had a good series on college in 2004. Here's one article:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north303.html

In another article, he implores middle class parents to continue to invest in school, but to do it as cheaply as possible. He says you can get a fully accredited four-year degree, online, for about $7000. I'm not sure how accurate this is three years later, but it's worth checking into.

Note that I don't think college is a waste. I do think people should look at it as an economic arrangement. You can read all the books you want to for free, but you can't learn chemical engineering by yourself, etc.

Overall, I think that the future will have people like myself reconsidering a whole host of things, the first being "the kid's out the door for good after high school." Second of all, we might have to start reconsidering more traditional family arrangements, where we live with extended family for longer periods of time, etc. Third, in my case, I have drastically overhauled my entire lifestyle and reconsidered everything I thought I "needed". Things like: a car for every member of the household, etc. In my case, I moved to a much smaller, "safer" (wink wink) community, where I pay less than half of my previous rent. Yes, I live without some amenities but really, I've come to realize that as long as there is heat, food, quiet, etc. I can live with most anything else.

Walter Yannis
03-21-07, 01:37
It's all a part of the great American middle class dream. It will undoubtedly die long before the myth of it dies, though. It goes something like this:

"Attend the best possible school. This will put you approximately $100,000 in debt, or maybe only $40,000 if you attend a state university. Unless you major in chemical engineering or similar you can now expect to make $35/40k a year [if even that] upon graduation. Now, when you're in your late 20's, you'll actually have your student loans paid off, but now you've got a mortgage payment, and oh, now you say you want a family, too?" . . .SNIP . . . Overall, I think that the future will have people like myself reconsidering a whole host of things, the first being "the kid's out the door for good after high school." SNIP . ..

Statistically speaking, the big dividing line in terms of lifetime income is between the "Four Year Degree" and "No Four Year Degree" categories. Steve Sailer had a good thing on this recently. it probably shouldn't be that way, and vocational schools should be more highly regarded and better funded since they will serve the larger middle section of the IQ Bell Curve, but regardless that's the way it is.

The next question - which institution grants you your BA/BS - is much less important in terms of lifetime income. There is as far as I understand a statistically significant edge from attending one of the Ivy League schools, for example, but it's not nearly as big as the "Degree" vs. "No Degree" dichotomy.

I have one kid in college, and it's pricey, but I can handle it right now financially. In making the decision about which institution she'd attend, cost was a big factor. We chose the school that offerred a good deal of grant money. It's a "more selective" school as rated by US News,private and nominally Catholic, so that was nice too. But they give her in grants about half the total cost. My point is that she could have gotten into a "most selective" school with a stretch, but I'd have to pay full fare. The difference in outcome just isn't that great, so we settled.

As far as her academic majors were concerned, we agreed she'd study Business, foreign languages, and art. It probably goes without saying that she wanted the languages and the art, I suggested the Business. If she feels like it I'll send her to an MBA program when she's done.

I'm saying it's a balancing act. No matter how you slice it, college is a huge investment in money and time, and you also have to consider the huge opportunity costs of sitting around in a library four years when you could have been working and making money. It's still worth it most of the time, but costs are a big factor, and if you're going to major in something that will never land you a nice job, then don't do it unless you have a really rich daddy and nothing else you'd rather do with your time.

For most bright kids I'd say "get your BA/BS degree in something practical, consider grad school in sciences, or MBA, JD, or MD."

In financial terms, grad school is mostly a waste of time otherwise (unless it's for something specific, like to get a teaching credential or something).

Last Chance Armada
03-21-07, 20:04
Statistically speaking, the big dividing line in terms of lifetime income is between the "Four Year Degree" and "No Four Year Degree" categories.

I get the feeling you're familar with Yggdrasil's works on college! Yes, the four year degree is still the big dividing mark. But, kids who really hate school can certainly make a decent living without doing the standard four-year path.

It seems to me that there's a huge area that only immigrants are taking advantage of in America right now. Businesses like day cleaners, etc. are pretty much sure-fire bets, yet white Americans as a whole have lost the 'small business mentality' (at least in my neck of the woods). But, the guy who owns two or three dry cleaners is not going to do poorly financially. There's a lot of options out there besides getting a four-year degree and working at a Fortune 500 company.


The next question - which institution grants you your BA/BS - is much less important in terms of lifetime income. There is as far as I understand a statistically significant edge from attending one of the Ivy League schools, for example, but it's not nearly as big as the "Degree" vs. "No Degree" dichotomy.

I know a guy who got a full-ride scholarship to a completely nice private liberal arts college, and turned it down so he could pay 100% of his tuition at Princeton instead. He says it was the biggest mistake he's ever made. It was like turning down $150,000, not even calculating opportunity cost, etc.

For things like sciences and engineering, a school is much less important than your actual performance. Talent naturally rises to the top. You might not be able to say you've graduated from Stanford, but who cares? As Gary North points out, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars, or an addtional five or six years of your life, to get a name-brand education or a PhD doesn't exactly work out in the grand scheme of things.

I went to a state university and then was able to get my master's mostly funded by my employers. So, I think I played the system fairly well. I didn't graduate with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. A while back I calculated the difference between my particular path and the MD path (assuming I wouldn't have gone on to a big dollar field, such as cardiology or radiology) and, the MD path still works out positively -- but just barely. Granted, I can't wow the ladies with a "Dr." prefix to my name but I've done pretty well financially in any case -- and not to mention, I've been able to do a lot of things in my 20's that someone in permanent graduate student mode wouldn't have been able to do.

Walter Yannis
03-21-07, 20:25
I get the feeling you're familar with Yggdrasil's works on college! Yes, the four year degree is still the big dividing mark. But, kids who really hate school can certainly make a decent living without doing the standard four-year path.

LOL! Yeah, I'm a big Ygg fan.

But a lot of it was research I did a couple years ago when I was planning to send my eldest off to college. US News has a lot of good info on this subject, as does Business Week and Forbes (and WSJ). Much of it free, some of it you have to pay a small membership fee for.

The basic dichotomy is robust, there's little doubt about that.

I think your friend's experience with Princeton illustrates the point well. What Ygg wrote about his daughter going to Harvard for $40k/year is right on the money. You gotta ask yourself whether paying that much so that your kid can be a laboratory rat for a bunch of elite Heebie kids is worth it.

As it is, my kid is getting an excellent education (she's a terrific student, unlike her old man) in what is (at least nominally) a Catholic and demographically overwhelmingly white institution, so I take some small comfort in the fact that I'm patronizing one of "our" institutions with my hard earned bucks (even though the Dean might not like that fact).

I'm all for getting whites into small businesses, I'm a small businessman myself (freelance attorney). I agree that white Americans have lost that spirit, sadly. I always try to keep in mind the old Jewish saying "skin carcasses in the street, but have your own business." Exactly. I urge all to read "The Millionaire Next Door" which makes a great case for owning your own business. That book really helped me get focused on my own desultory attempts at gaining professional independence. It's worked out pretty well for me, too. I make the same or more than i would have had a remained a highly paid corporate cubicle serf, but I don't have to kiss nobody's backside, you know?

Macrobius
03-21-07, 20:40
My advice to kids today considering a four year college is don't bother -- you won't get anything worthwhile out of it, spiritually or financially. If you feel otherwise, please explain.

I'm willing to be convinced, but if I don't get a cogent answer back, then I *know* I'm right. If they want to go enough to talk back to an adult and have enough sense and training to put words together in order and back their 'feelings' up, well, it's a start.... Snatch the tuition from my hand,
grasshopper.

Happy Hacker
03-21-07, 20:56
My advice to kids today considering a four year college is don't bother -- you won't get anything worthwhile out of it, spiritually or financially. If you feel otherwise, please explain.

I mostly agree. Unless what you really want to do requires a degree, people should consider skipping college. I have two things to say about the wage gap between college graduates and non-graduates: First, the gap is mostly a result of the kind of people who go and don't go to college, not anything special from going to college. Second, college graduates give up a lot personally for that pay (such as leaving their home towns or not having children to pursue more income).

Last Chance Armada
03-21-07, 23:59
First, the gap is mostly a result of the kind of people who go and don't go to college, not anything special from going to college. Second, college graduates give up a lot personally for that pay (such as leaving their home towns or not having children to pursue more income).

That's a good point -- unquantifiable, but -- it seems to me that the people more likely to go to college are more "system-oriented" in general. For example, I consider half of the curriculum in your average engineering program to be little more than evidence that you can sit at a desk and mindlessly churn out code for 8-10 hours a day without a problem. When you hire an engineer, you know you're not just getting a person with certain skills, but a person who plays well within the confines of the "system" well. There are of course exceptions, but at every rung on the ladder people who don't quite fit in are weeded out.

So I could interpret your answer two ways: one, those who attend college are more inclined to "the system" and its rules, or two (less likely) that those who attend college have a stronger will and work ethic. My experience is that the latter is most definitely NOT the case (overall -- I'm not referring to the overachiever Ivy types.) I know in my case, I had little idea what I wanted to do after high school so college was a good bet. It was either that or the military (and I kind of regret never joining the military, as it would be nice to have some weapons/tactics type training. I probably would have just been a REMF anyway though, so no big loss -- and I'm not going to beat myself up for not having a master life strategy @18)...

A four year degree is still a good predictor of economic success. I don't know, I mostly agree with Macrobius but still, I can't see most 18-22 year olds doing much _better_ with their time than learning something decent in college. To restate my point, I think it is still worthwhile (financially if certainly not spiritually) but unless you can get a big scholarship I'd advise most young people to do it as quickly and cheaply as possible.

I might not have gotten much spiritually or financially out of my four-year degree, but I was doing a little more than working at the local pizza parlor and getting drunk with the same group of guys from high school every Friday night like a lot of people I knew, so I suppose it depends on your perspective.

Macrobius
03-22-07, 08:18
A four year degree is still a good predictor of economic success. I don't know, I mostly agree with Macrobius but still, I can't see most 18-22 year olds doing much _better_ with their time than learning something decent in college. To restate my point, I think it is still worthwhile (financially if certainly not spiritually) but unless you can get a big scholarship I'd advise most young people to do it as quickly and cheaply as possible.


That's true, but only because they wasted their high school years and have to repeat them in college. :) The time for college is age 14, not age 18. The root problem is that the children are warehoused by the system until the 'graduate' at 18, effectively wasting childhood time.

A college that won't admit you at 14 is a college that is wasting your time -- so I will withdraw my statement when there is such a college. :)

Really, among homeschooled kids I see the brighter ones (the top 30% say) ready to do 'high school' level work at 12 or 13. It's not like it's going to take them 5 years to get out of high school what the average kid gets either.

Also, don't underestimate the race mixing factor that is omnipresent in the public schools from holding white kids back.

Bordeaux
03-22-07, 08:48
I've learned more about life, "the system", geopolitics, and history on the Internet in the last 5-6 years than I ever learned in college or high school combined.

The Jews, the Corporations, and the FedGov use the media, the educational system, and usury as a way to control the population, for better or worse.

This should be the new golden rule for all students from the 1st grade to senior in college.

Walter Yannis
03-23-07, 01:13
I respectfully disagree with Macrobius and Happy Hacker.

A credential counts. A lot.

Maybe it shouldn't, but in the real world of finding a job out there, it does.

Look, who is the evil HR Director of the local multinational going to hire, the smart autodidact kid or the smart kid with the diploma from a decent school?

Get the degree, young man.

Don't look to the left, don't look to the right. Get your eyes fixed on the prize and GET THE DEGREE.

And of course really learn as much as you can on your way to it.

But get the bloody degree, because it really does make all the difference in the world in most cases at least.

madrussian
03-23-07, 09:27
Get an education, a job, and discriminate mercilessly against wogs to retake corporations and provide jobs for white people on all levels of corporate ladder.

That's what the fvcking wogs practice, and they know perfectly well what they are doing. It's not time to withdraw from the system.

Walter Yannis
03-23-07, 10:19
Get an education, a job, and discriminate mercilessly against wogs to retake corporations and provide jobs for white people on all levels of corporate ladder.

That's what the fvcking wogs practice, and they know perfectly well what they are doing. It's not time to withdraw from the system.

Mega dittos.

We all need to do everything we can to rise as "high and inside" as we can, and to use our exalted positions to advance white interests.

Macrobius
03-23-07, 10:30
Mega dittos.

We all need to do everything we can to rise as "high and inside" as we can, and to use our exalted positions to advance white interests.

I see the argument, however I demur. You are assuming that by doing these things there will be a powerful inside you can get into that way. This is rather counting chickens before they are hatched. Only true knowledge is a good hedge against what you don't know about the future, and time spent getting a credential that would have been a brilliant strategy--the quintessential insider play--in 1930, an excellent one 1950, a better than average one in 1970, and a fair one in 1990 is not necessarily a slamdunk.

However, I will allow that I may be biased by the tech profession perspective. Getting inside at AT&T would have looked mainstream in 1970, before the breakup, divesting its computer division, the spin off of R&D, picking the formerly high margin market (long distance) that was about to become a zero margin commodity with a declining demographic base, finally sold off in a bidding war between 1/6th of the original breakup and a former competitor. What being inside AT&T would have bought you all those years is the 'bell head' mentality (similar to the IBM mentality, or the Academic mentality) -- which means a quick inside track *wherever members of your subtribe* are found, over the next 20-30 years. But that is value based on diminishing supply, just like classically educated or scientifically trained individuals are actually in diminishing supply, compared to marxist-trained ones.

Picking academia today is just picking a subtribe. Was then, is now. The question is, or should be, what are the subtribe's fortunes and is clawing one's way to the top going to be worth it after expending the resources to get there. Hard to argue that in Tech, but maybe other fields and tribal pockets have different terrain to fight on.

SmedleyButler
03-25-07, 13:04
This is hopefully important to those with degree's of understanding.


The graphs are the link for this article.



Source: http://silverstockreport.com/2007/wh...ll_double.html


Why Silver's Ready to Double in a Year

First, here's the silver story in a nutshell.

Silver is money, the only true money of the masses, the people. Gold is for kings. Silver is for change, and is the "workhorse" money.

Silver has been consumed by industry. The world is running out of silver; industry consumes more than the mines produce.

There's no room for any investment demand to enter the silver market without driving the price sky high. We've just begun to see a little bit of investment demand.

There is way too much paper money; the dollar is fruad. There's nothing backing the dollar. If the U.S. gold hoard exists, it would back only 1% of the value of the dollar. That's an enormous amount of fraud.

And all frauds have one thing in common. They end very suddenly. The thing that's going to happen, when the fraud of the dollar ends, is that dollars won't buy anything. And so what will people be using for money? They will be using gold and silver.

So you'll have huge amounts of monetary potential demand entering the gold and silver markets.

On top of the scarcity factor, silver could go up a tremendous amount.

The current ratio of silver to gold is 50:1, 50 ounces of silver will buy 1 ounce of gold. The historic ratio is 15:1, that means you can make 3 times your money owning silver, but if we do better than the historic ratio, due to the scarcity factor, we could make 6-10 times as much money in silver than in gold.

That's why I'm in silver.

But I run silverstockreport.com and own silver stocks due to leverage.

People know that if silver is going to go up, they are going to buy the silver stocks. If the world needs gold and silver that badly, then the companies that produce it are going to be earning tremendous amounts of money.

You want the stocks for the leverage.

If silver goes up 3 times, and you have a marginal producer of silver with a reasonable P/E ratio of 10, their earnings can skyrocket and can go up 3000% as silver goes up three times, so the stock price can outpace silver.

Now, we need to talk about P/E ratios more in a minute, but first, silver.

In the last few years, silver has been going up by 30% per year minimum. And I believe we are now on the edge, on the verge, of silver going up 100% in the next year.

A lot of other metals and oil are up 500%.

Oil was up from $10 to a high of $70, now $60.

Zinc from $.35 to a high of $2.00,. now $1.50/lb.

Copper, from $.75 to a high of $4.00, now $3.00/lb.

Lead from $.20 to $.90/lb.

Nickel from $3 to $22/lb.

Uranium, Indium, Molybdenum, Selenium, Cobalt are all up 1000% or more.

Silver, just to keep up with the other commodities, if silver were to go up 500% from the bottom at $5/oz, that would be would be $25.

And I really think that now it's silver's turn.

So, with silver at about $13, we are going to see silver rise to $25, or gain about 100% real quick.

That's just my opinion, just what I think, just from my experience watching the markets.

But silver's going to do better in the long run than a lot of the other commodities, because nobody's going to store, or go out and buy $5000 worth of oil, and store it in 80 barrels on their front lawn.

But anybody can go to the coin shops and buy $5000 worth of silver and put it in the corner of their back closet.

There's a reason why silver is money and nothing else is! (except for fraudulent paper)!

Silver does the job of money!

Oil doesn't. It's too messy, it's too heavy, too bulky, too inconvenient.

Silver--with such an enormous amount of value packed in such a small quantity is really fantastic.

But people complain that you get so much silver for your money, but that is exactly why you want to buy it!

So, getting back to stocks.

If a stock earns 33% of its market cap in a year, that's a P/E ratio of 3.

Therefore, I'm not interested in stocks with P/E's higher than 3, because I believe silver is going to go up 30% in the next year, minimum!

So a stock with a P/E ratio of 3 is a "break even" with silver at 30%.

Again, I'm not in stocks to break even with silver. I'm in the stocks only for one reason--to outperform silver. If the stocks are not going to outperform silver, there's no reason for me to own them. I have no reason to own stocks that are going to go up less than 30% in a year.

I want stocks to outperform silver!

My goal is to acquire more silver, not to acquire more dollars.

Now think about this:

A P/E of 1 is a "break even" with silver going up 100% in a year. And I expect silver to go up 100% in the next year, or 18 months.

This chart also points to silver rising about 100% in the next year or so:











Now, I'm sure many of you have heard of the Dow to Gold Ratio.

Historically, it returns to 1:1, so that means if we expect $3000/oz. for gold, that’s 3000 for the Dow. Or 30k for each. Either way. Or it could be 50,000 for each, or 100,000.

At that 1:1 ratio, Dow/gold, gold is going up by about 20% per year, bonds are paying 20% per year, and the P/E ratio for the stocks is about a 5, where companies earn 20% per year compared to their market cap. That's the baseline of normal values. Well, not really, because in a "normal" world, there is no such thing as the fraud of paper money.

The point is that this is the reason why P/E ratios return to such low values. There's no point in buying a P/E ratio higher than 5 if the price of gold is increasing by 20%! They are on par!

That's the true "opportunity cost" of not owning gold or silver right now in this bull market.

Gold and silver are going to continue to do better than most stocks, until P/E ratios come back to a normal 5-7.

Now, many mining stocks, especially emerging producers, have P/E or forward P/E ratios of about 1-2 or 3. And wall street is not buying because they don't understand, and have not done the research to find these stocks, and/or the companies are badly promoted. Some of these stocks, I'm just finding out about in the last month or so.

But still, two weeks ago, I bought silver. I bought a lot of silver. Why?

If silver's ready to run 100%, I need a P/E ratio of as low as 1 just to compare, just to "break even" with where I think silver is going.

And if silver is about to outperform copper and zinc, then a copper or zinc stock with a P/E of 2-3 may not even keep up with silver.

My own rule of basic portfolio management is to put the most of your assets into the thing that you think will go up the most.

So, I have 17% of my portfolio now in physical silver.

If I include gold and palladium (I don’t own any platinum), I'd have 21% of my overall portfolio in the physical metals. If you want to know more, of what percentage I've allocated to about 30 stocks, and which stocks those are that I expect to go up by 30% per year or more, or with very, very low P/E ratios or forward P/E ratios, please subscribe to the "look at my portfolio" at silverstockreport.com.

Thank you.

Macrobius
03-25-07, 14:23
No kidding about silver -- I bought all I could afford when it was at $7/oz. and it's close to doubled since then already.

One way to bootstrap the whole metals/alternative economy thing is for the 'membership organizations' -- the outfits in the 'movement' (ugh! can we have a better name?) that take dues could offer 10% rebates in e-gold or something like that. It is hard to *get* e-gold (http://e-gold.com ) in the first place, which is why it is not used more. It is relatively easy to be *given* it. I think there is enough demand out there among dissidents that a membership that kicked back a portion of the donation or dues in e-currency would actually be an attractant. One would have to check out the legalities of 'dealing online in currency' or more likely Terms of Service from the ISPs. However, they should not be insurmountable -- after all, PBS will give you a mug or an umbrella or something right?

But I think that is doable for a 'membership drive'. If one could get matching funds it would be even better -- refund half the dues in e-gold and accept e-gold later on. All this would encourage the building of alternative economies, enrich the community by putting it on a sounder basis, and run membership up for organizations that want/need that. And who knows what the trickle down effect of liquity in that specific community would be too.